The 2008 US Presidential Campaign 

Project Monarch

Is Obama Playing the Game?
What is Barack Obama's best strategy for securing the Democratic nomination and positioning himself for election as the next President of the United States? 

 

Project Monarch was an examination of the campaign for the US presidential election using the Open Options analytical process. Open Options’ proprietary game-theoretical tools were used to analyze the relationships of key players and over 8 million possible outcomes to determine the best strategy for Sen. Obama in his quest for the Presidency.

The process began with the distribution of questionnaires to Dr. Tom Flanagan of the University of Calgary and his team of graduate and senior undergraduate students, who were asked to provide information regarding the following issues statement:

Following Super Tuesday, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are both strong contenders for the nomination as the Democratic candidate for the US Presidential election, and John McCain is the front runner for the nomination as the Republican candidate. What is Barack Obama's best strategy for securing the nomination and positioning himself for election as the next President of the United States, taking into account the strategic actions of Ms. Clinton and her supporters, Sen. McCain and his supporters, and other key interested groups and individuals? The time frame for consideration is from now until the Democratic National Convention in August 2008.

The questionnaire responses formed a starting point for a two-day workshop on February 16-17, 2008 in which the team determined the most influential players, their relevant options, and their individual preferences. All of this information was captured in a structured format which was then fed into the game-theoretical computer tools of Open Options. In the week following the workshop, Open Options carefully analyzed the case, converting the insights gained from the models into a detailed and comprehensive strategy report.

The analysis showed that if players followed their direct interests, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Super-delegates, and John Edwards would not favor either Clinton or Obama early. Furthermore, Hillary Clinton would likely not increase her negative messaging against Barack Obama out of fear of offending the DNC and Super-delegates until her prospects were particularly precarious. On the Republican side, Sen. Obama will have to deal with John McCain aggressively seeking ownership of key Democratic issues.

The Open Options process also revealed the DNC as the player with the most effective power in the issue. Surprisingly, DNC is a hidden opponent to Sen. Obama because the DNC simply want a clear winner in the nomination race. In fact, there is a danger outcome that could potentially spell disaster for Obama. This outcome may be brought about by the strong desire of the DNC to unite the party against the Republicans by firming up the Presidential nomination early. The DNC has the option to pressure either candidate but the model demonstrated that this would be an ineffective measure against Sen. Clinton. Given his young age, however, Obama may be deemed to be less determined to fight until the bitter end. Therefore, the DNC may pressure Obama to withdraw if they see a crack in his resolve to remain in the race. What makes this even more dangerous for Sen. Obama is the fact that the DNC’s actions may cause the previously uncommitted players, the Super-delegates and John Edwards, to follow the DNC’s lead.

After identifying these potential outcomes, the Open Options process shows how Sen. Obama can improve his situation through clever maneuvering and by taking advantage of some key relationships. The report gave four key recommendations to Obama:

Act firmly – To avoid DNC pressure, it is crucial that Obama shows no weakness in his resolve to stay in the nomination race.


Show dignity – Even if Sen. Clinton increases her negative messaging, Obama should not respond directly but emphasize his message of unity and hope.

Seek alliances – The analysis revealed that Edwards is an uncommitted player who urgently wants to make a decision. Either candidate could potentially secure his endorsement by aligning with some of his key issues.

Support spiritual values – The game-theoretical tools also exposed how Obama could profit from McCain’s strained relationship with the Evangelical voters; in particular, if Obama embraces some of the Evangelical values, he can lead McCain to abandon his pursuit of key Democratic issues and even influence McCain’s choice of running mate.

A unique feature of the Open Options process is the way that the recommendations and predictions are clearly tied to the inputs gathered from the client. Even though the game-theoretical tools make calculations that are inaccessible to the human mind – in this case analyzing 8,388,608 outcomes – the results are made transparent. Through a combination of observation slides and tactics charts, insights are gained that directly support the predicted outcomes and recommendations.

Another key benefit of the Open Options process is the format in which the inputs are gathered. It is usually very challenging for strategists and decision-makers to agree on the best strategy on a particular issue; however, it is much easier to agree on which players will have an impact on the outcome, what their possible actions are, and what each of those players desires and fears. This framework opens a whole new perspective on issues that may have plagued a political campaign or organization for years. Furthermore, and often most importantly, the process leads to group consensus since everyone agrees on the inputs and the recommendations are direct logical conclusions from these inputs.

Dr. Flanagan, the former campaign manager for Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper, commented on the Open Options process, “I find the Open Options process remarkably insightful and I strongly believe that game theory has a strong role in helping to define political strategies. After reviewing the Project Monarch report, I view the upcoming US election with a different perspective. Open Options was able to provide an enormous amount of analysis and insight on who the players are, their choices and preferences; and ultimately they identified the best course of action Obama should take in order to achieve his end goal of becoming the next President of the United States”.

If you are interested in reading the full report or in learning more about Open Options, please contact Dr. Niall Fraser (nmf@openoptions.com or (519) 884-5895 x 28) or visit us at www.openoptions.com.

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